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针对风力发电机组频发的火灾事故，首先从人-机-环-管角度出发，通过统计分析近20年来全球81起风力发电机组火灾事故案例，得到了21项风力发电机组火灾事故的影响因素；然后通过事故树分析（fault tree analysis,FTA）法演绎推理得到了风力发电机组火灾事故各基本事件的逻辑关系，并根据结构重要度进行了火灾事故致因的定性分析；接着采用模糊层次分析（fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,FAHP）法，将事故树的基本事件从人、机、环、管4个方面整合，构建出风力发电机组火灾事故致因评价指标体系，并以结构重要度系数的顺序为模糊判断矩阵的赋值依据，进行了火灾事故致因的定量分析；最后，根据综合分析结果提出了风力发电机组火灾事故的对策措施。结果表明：机和环境的不安全因素是引发火灾事故的主要致因；电气设备故障和雷击是最主要因素。该研究成果可为风力发电机组的火灾防治提供理论参考。
Abstract：In response to the frequent occurrence of wind turbine fire accidents, this study first analyzed 81 global wind turbine fire incident cases from the past two decades through a statistical approach based on the human-machine-environment-management( HMEM) framework. This analysis identified 22 influencing factors of wind turbine fires. Subsequently, through deductive reasoning using fault tree analysis(FTA),the logical relationships among basic events leading to wind turbine fires were established, with qualitative cause analysis conducted via structural importance degree. The basic events from the FTA were then categorized into four dimensions,i. e. human, machine, environment and management,to construct a causal evaluation index system for wind turbine fires. Using the structural importance coefficient order as the basis for assigning values in the fuzzy matrix, a judgment matrix was developed via the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) to perform quantitative cause analysis. Finally, targeted countermeasures for wind turbine fire prevention were proposed based on comprehensive analysis. The results indicate that unsafe factors in machine and the environment serve as the primary causes of fire accidents, with electrical equipment failures and lightning strikes identified as the most critical contributing factors. This research provides a theoretical foundation for fire prevention and control in wind turbines.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13578/j.cnki.issn.1671-1556.20240213
中图分类号:X928.7;TM315
引用信息:
[1]梅志恒,陆凯华,商溪林.基于FTA-FAHP的风力发电机组火灾事故致因分析[J].安全与环境工程,2025,32(04):78-85.DOI:10.13578/j.cnki.issn.1671-1556.20240213.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52376133)